The Return of the Russians?

The latest issue of the German news magazine Der Spiegel has reported that the Russian military recently conducted its first V-E Day parade since the end of the Cold War. This display of military might has caused alarm in the Baltic region, especially Lithuania and Poland. Included in this list of horrified neighbors is the tiny Caucasian state of Georgia, which has been feeling a good amount of Russian diplomatic heat over a litany of issues over the years. The reason is obvious, both Lithuania and Georgia were once “Soviet Socialist Republics” in the “Union of Soviet Socialist Republics”. In other words, they were provinces of the old Soviet Russian Empire. Poland too was in the orbit of Moscow’s ruling Communist party, as the old communist government of Poland depended directly on Moscow’s military muscle.

The Der Spiegel article fails to mention any response from the Balkan region, which once housed replicas of Poland’s ruling Communist Party. The online English language press from both Romania and Bulgaria fail to mention anything about it. Similarly, western Balkan nations of the former Yugoslavia seem nonplussed as well, eliciting no mention of this event. Perhaps it is too early to tell. The Bulgarian press has its hands full trying to cover the increasingly byzantine scandal regarding the involvement of prominent Bulgarian cabinet members with top figures of organized crime. In Romania, it would appear that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been paying more attention to Romania’s position among member states of the EU and its own version of a Balkan scandal there. My guess is that it would take time for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to draft a response to Russia’s display of military might given the fact that the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Adrian Cioroianu, has recently resigned in the face of scandal.

Perhaps. A more likely answer, however, is the fact that Romania and Bulgaria are now securely insulated within NATO and the European Union. Bulgaria has troops stationed in Iraq, and is currently in the process of stationing its security forces closer to Baghdad. Both nations have secured new trade agreements with Russia and have moved beyond the antagonism that marked Eastern Europe’s relationship with Russia during the 1990’s. The position of Poland and Lithuania are more exposed, especially in regards to continuing energy rows that have come to dominate the relationship between the countries and Russia over the past few years. The country that feels the most pressure is tiny Georgia, which has been in diplomatic conflict with Russia over the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia for some time now. Like Bulgaria, Georgia has troops stationed in Iraq, but Georgia is not a member of NATO. At least, not yet.

Russia does not want that happen, and the United States day by day seems less willing to ignore Russian concerns over the expansion of NATO into areas that historically have fallen within Russia’s sphere of influence. Russia has come to accept the fact that Romania and Bulgaria are now squarely within the Western camp, and has treated them accordingly. When I was in Sofia in 2006, anti-Russian feelings seemed nearly non-existant. The most pressing concern for Bulgarians today seems to be Turkey and ethnic Turks living in Bulgaria. As mentioned earlier, Romania’s biggest problem seems to be the West and especially fellow EU member Hungary over the Hungarian minority in Transylvania. It seems some things never change.

The Der Spiegel article is also indicative of two other trends: one is the growth Russo-phobia in the West (not without some justification) and in Germany in particular. Germany has been at conflict with Russia over energy policy (primarily Germany’s need for Russian natural gas shipments) and has felt its bargaining position slowly slipping away as Russia becomes more assertive in its foreign policy. Eastern Germany also feels the pain of 40 years of communist rule dictated by Moscow, and wants to naturally blunt Russian influence in East Central Europe.

In other words, it would seem at first glance that the Balkan region has come to terms with its Communist past. Romania and Bulgaria have successfully negotiated new economic partnerships with Russia while forging new political and military relationships with the west through NATO and the EU. Serbia has traditionally been a friend of Russia. It will probably take some time to fully reveal the position of Balkan governments regarding the resurgence of Russian military pomp, but at least there seems to be no knee-jerk horror at the fact that outdated Soviet equipment was put on display in the Red Square. For now, however, this incident seems to be proof that the Balkan region is currently comfortable with its position in European affairs, or at least comfortable enough when it comes to Russian military power.